A new statement by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) assuring Igbos worldwide of “robust security” during the festive season has reignited long-standing debates about public safety, state authority, and the dangerous rise of non-state actors in Nigeria’s security landscape. While some citizens welcomed the message as a gesture of reassurance, others argue that it exposes deeper governance failures and the persistent trust deficit between communities and formal security institutions.
For years, the Southeast has struggled with a cycle of violence involving separatist agitation, armed criminal gangs, and heavy-handed security responses. According to SBM Intelligence, the region recorded hundreds of abductions, targeted killings, and destruction of public facilities between 2020 and 2024, many carried out by groups operating under the guise of IPOB or its militant wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN). Although IPOB’s spokesperson, Emma Powerful, urged citizens to return home “without fear,” analysts note that this rhetoric glosses over lingering insecurity and the everyday realities of residents who have endured disrupted markets, deserted highways, and the notorious Monday sit-at-home enforcements.
Reactions to IPOB’s message reflect a sharp divide in public confidence. Some individuals, in informal tones, celebrated the announcement, suggesting it is “good news” for those longing to reunite with family. Others, however, questioned the legitimacy of IPOB assuring safety, arguing that “they have no authority to guarantee security,” a responsibility constitutionally vested in the Nigeria Police Force and other state agencies. Critics point out that many Igbos fled to Lagos, Abuja, and northern cities after years of violence attributed to non-state enforcers. This duality hope on one hand, skepticism on the other captures the complex emotions of a region whose sense of safety has been repeatedly shaken.
Experts warn that security assurances from non-state groups, no matter how well-intentioned, reveal dangerous structural cracks. Nigeria’s constitution centralizes policing under federal control, leaving no room for separatist groups to “guarantee security.” Research by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) shows that when armed non-state actors step into security vacuums whether in the Southeast, Northwest, or Niger Delta, citizens face higher risks of extortion, arbitrary violence, and parallel systems of authority. IPOB’s offer, therefore, raises troubling questions, Are such declarations concealing unresolved internal violence? Are they attempts to reclaim legitimacy amid waning public confidence? Or do they expose the state’s inability to maintain credible security in all regions?
Beyond politics, the Southeast’s security debate carries deep emotional weight. Families separated by fear recount years of disrupted festivities, deserted hometowns, and relatives too afraid to travel because of “hyenas and hyena cubs” a metaphor for both the detained leaders and remaining violent actors. Some residents recall being threatened for refusing to observe enforced sit-at-home orders, others remember the psychological burden of not knowing whether a road trip home might turn deadly. The mockery, sarcasm, and raw emotions in public reactions underscore a painful truth, insecurity has eroded not just physical safety but the cultural rhythm of homecoming, communal celebration, and trust in one another.
IPOB’s statement may offer symbolic comfort to some, but sustainable safety in the Southeast requires institutional solutions rooted in legitimacy, accountability, and community partnership. Policy experts recommend accelerating police reforms, deploying technology-driven security strategies, strengthening local intelligence networks, and rebuilding public trust through transparent operations and inclusive governance. At the end of the day, Nigerians whether in Enugu, Lagos, or the diaspora seek more than holiday assurances. They want a security architecture that protects all citizens, not one defined by fear, fractured authority, or rival claims to power. The path to peace lies not in rhetoric but in restoring credible state capacity, addressing root causes of agitation, and ensuring that every citizen can return home without fear during the festive season and beyond.
©️ Adebamiwa Olugbenga Michael
Lagos-based political Analyst Exploring Ethnic Economics and Urban Policy Through Open-Source Data
