A new World Bank report has painted a grim picture of Nigeria’s economic situation, revealing that more than half of the country’s population now lives in poverty, while over a quarter cannot afford a healthy diet even if they spend all their income on food. The findings, contained in the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) for October 2025, underscore the deepening cost-of-living crisis, rising food prices, and the failure of social protection measures to cushion the effects of persistent inflation and economic stagnation.
According to the World Bank, “as a result of still timid growth, high inflation, and an underdeveloped social safety net, the previous fall in consumption levels and rise in poverty levels have yet to start reversing.” The report notes that millions of Nigerians have seen their living standards deteriorate sharply in recent years, with poverty deepening across both rural and urban areas.
The Bank’s analysis of growth incidence curves (GICs) shows that average consumption levels declined by 6.7 percent between 2019 and 2023, a drop attributed to “pre-2023 policy missteps and external shocks” such as the COVID-19 pandemic, global commodity volatility, and domestic monetary distortions. The impact was most severe in urban areas, where households are more exposed to market fluctuations and lack the subsistence buffers common in rural communities.
“Urban households have been particularly hard hit,” the report said. “Subsistence agriculture offers limited protection in cities, leaving millions of households vulnerable to inflation and declining purchasing power.”
Using data from the Nigeria Living Standards Survey (NLSS) 2022/23, the World Bank estimated that more than one in every two Nigerians—equivalent to 56 percent of the population—was poor in 2023, marking a steep increase from 40 percent in 2019. This translates to tens of millions of Nigerians falling below the national poverty line within four years, wiping out much of the progress previously made in poverty reduction.
The report highlights stark regional disparities, with poverty “remaining elevated in the northern part of the country, where more than seven in ten Nigerians are poor, compared to about three in ten in the south.” The northeast recorded the worst poverty incidence at over 80 percent, followed closely by the northwest, while the south-south zone had the lowest rate at 32 percent.
Perhaps the most alarming revelation is the growing number of “ultra-poor” Nigerians—those who cannot meet the minimum caloric requirement for a healthy life, even if they spend their entire income on food. The share of such households rose dramatically from 14 percent in 2019 to 27 percent in 2023. This represents about 139 million Nigerians living in ultra-poverty, underscoring the severity of food insecurity and malnutrition nationwide.
“The erosion of purchasing power due to inflation, particularly in food prices, has forced millions into hunger,” the World Bank warned. “Food inflation has disproportionately affected the poorest households, for whom food constitutes the largest share of total consumption.”
Although the report notes that inflation began to moderate in 2025, it remains “high, volatile, and uneven.” The recent rebasing of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), it added, “complicates the assessment of year-on-year inflation,” making it difficult to determine the true extent of price pressures.
The Nigeria Development Update attributes much of the current hardship to years of inconsistent policy choices, limited fiscal discipline, and inadequate safety nets. The Bank stressed that structural reforms—such as exchange rate unification, removal of fuel subsidies, and efforts to mobilize non-oil revenue—while necessary, have short-term costs that disproportionately affect the poor when not accompanied by robust social protection programs.
“These reforms, though economically sound in the long run, must be accompanied by targeted measures to shield vulnerable groups,” the report stated. “Otherwise, the benefits of reform may be undermined by worsening poverty and inequality.”
The findings echo earlier concerns from the World Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report, also released in October 2025, which ranked Nigeria as the Sub-Saharan African country with the highest number of people facing job-related challenges. The report revealed that approximately 98 million Nigerians—nearly half of the working-age population—are either unemployed, underemployed, or engaged in precarious, low-income work.
Nigeria topped the list, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo with 72 million, Ethiopia with 62 million, Tanzania with 40 million, and Uganda with 27 million people facing employment difficulties.
“In Sub-Saharan Africa, underemployment is extensive, reflecting the inability of economies in the region to create enough steady wage jobs for the growing population,” the Africa’s Pulse report noted. “Inadequate wage job creation leads to poor-quality jobs. Instead, high levels of involuntary self-employment and informality are the norm.”
The World Bank observed that only one in six workers in Sub-Saharan Africa holds a formal wage job, compared to one in two in high-income countries. This gap, it said, reflects structural weaknesses in economic organization, limited access to finance, and restrictive regulatory environments that inhibit firm growth and job creation.
In Nigeria, where informal work dominates, the absence of stable employment has intensified household vulnerability. Many Nigerians rely on irregular earnings, which are easily eroded by inflation and economic shocks.
“The lack of steady wage employment limits income security and makes it harder for households to plan, save, or invest,” the Bank added. “This perpetuates a cycle of low productivity, poverty, and informality.”
Economists say the World Bank’s findings reinforce long-standing warnings about Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenues, weak industrial base, and failure to diversify its economy. Despite being Africa’s largest economy by GDP, Nigeria’s per capita income has stagnated, and inequality has widened sharply.
“The headline growth figures obscure the underlying weakness,” said a development economist familiar with the report. “Economic expansion has been concentrated in a few sectors, while millions of Nigerians have not benefited from it. The middle class is shrinking, and poverty is becoming more entrenched.”
The World Bank urged the Nigerian government to strengthen fiscal transparency, boost agricultural productivity, and expand access to social safety programs such as cash transfers and health insurance. It also called for urgent action to tackle food inflation through improved logistics, investment in irrigation, and removal of internal trade barriers that drive up food prices.
The report concludes with a stark warning: without deliberate and sustained policy action, Nigeria risks a “lost decade” of development, where growth fails to translate into human progress.
“Economic recovery must be inclusive,” the World Bank stressed. “Nigeria’s potential is immense, but without decisive action to create jobs, control inflation, and protect the poor, millions more will be left behind.”
With more than 50 percent of its citizens living in poverty and 27 percent unable to afford adequate nutrition, the report portrays a nation at a critical crossroads—one where the choices made today will determine whether Nigeria can reverse its deepening poverty or sink further into crisis.
